Textile and garment exports from negative to positive

Affected by sluggish external demand, high cotton prices, and continued cost increases, the textile industry is still in a grave situation. Gao Yong, deputy chairman of the China National Textile and Apparel Council, said in recent days that exports have entered positive growth from September to October. However, due to further widening of cotton spreads at home and abroad, the more difficult situation in the cotton spinning industry and chemical fiber industry will continue for some time.

September-October exports from negative to positive people in the industry but nervous

“The most affected ones now are exports, and the second is the cotton spinning industry and the chemical fiber industry. The downturn in the international market has caused a certain impact on us,” Gao Yong said at the national textile industry quality conference. He said that in September and October, exports will break away from zero growth and enter a state of positive growth. After a slight improvement over the three months of June, July and August, it will be difficult to determine if the future will decline after this seasonal growth.

According to statistics from the customs, from January to September, total textile and apparel exports were US$186.1 billion, a slight increase of 0.5% over the same period of last year, of which textile export was US$71.05 billion and apparel exports were US$116.06 billion, up by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. In September, exports of textiles and apparels totaled 25.13 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 9%, of which textile exports accounted for 8.54 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 7%, and apparel exports accounted for 16.58 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 10%. From a ring perspective, textile and apparel exports rose 2% month-on-month, of which textiles grew by 0.6%, and clothing was unchanged from the previous month.

Gao Yong said that although the benefits of the textile industry have apparently declined, the industry has not yet suffered a loss, and the profit rate is now over 4%, which is even higher than the average profit rate in the past decade. From the point of view of the entire textile industry chain, although the growth rate has slowed down significantly, the more rational growth rate is not too fast or overheated.

“In 2009, we had a negative growth of 9.6% in our textile industry. But at that time, we were not alarmed. The decline in other countries and regions around the world was even worse than ours, so the market share in the United States and the European Union increased by 3% during the year. 4%, but this year, despite only zero growth, or a little negative growth, I feel a bit alarmed because the market share in the United States and the European Union continues to decline," said Gao Yong.

Cotton problem "delayed legs" domestic and foreign spreads over 5,000 yuan

In addition to sluggish external demand and continued increase in costs, the cotton issue remains a constraint to the development of the industry. It is understood that since 2012, domestic cotton prices have always been higher than the international market, and the spread has continued to widen. As of mid-August, domestic cotton prices have risen by more than 5,000 yuan per ton compared to the international market, and the spread has increased by 67% from the beginning of the year, resulting in China The competitiveness of the cotton spinning industry chain has been severely degraded, and the corporate efficiency has deteriorated.

“I just came back from Vietnam yesterday and saw that many of our companies now have to invest in Southeast Asia. In the past, we invested in knitting factories or ready-made garment factories. It is now turning investment spinning mills into hot spots,” said Gao Yong. He believes that because the cotton price reform involves the cotton policy and the competitiveness of the cotton industry, it is still difficult to completely solve in the short term, thus increasing the enthusiasm of spinning mills to go abroad to invest in cotton spinning mills.

He said that from January to September this year, the import of cotton yarn has exceeded 1 million tons, and the number of cotton yarn imports in the past two months is still increasing rapidly. It is expected that the import of cotton yarn will exceed 1.3 million tons this year. "The 1.3 million tons of such a scale actually means that China shuts down 8 million spindles. In fact, we already have a production slowdown of more than 10 million spindles."

Therefore, Gao Yong is not optimistic about the industry situation next year. "If the downturn in the international market improves slightly, it is also good news for the industry, hoping to get rid of the lack of consumer confidence and shrinking exports. Textile companies can start a slight upward trend, but the issue of cotton spreads may continue for some time. Therefore, I estimate that the more difficult situation in the cotton spinning industry and chemical fiber industry will continue for some time."