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Global cotton production in 2012/13 is expected to decrease by 4% from the previous year to 118.5 million bales. In 2011, the price of cotton hit a record high, encouraging the increase in cotton acreage and production in the world. At the same time, consumer demand for cotton apparel products declined, resulting in a decrease in global demand for cotton fibers. Due to the 2011/12 inventory replenishment and uncertainties in global economic growth, prices and cotton acreage may be reduced in 2012.
The sown area in China, India, Pakistan, Brazil, Central Asia and Australia is expected to decrease. The sum of these countries is expected to account for about 70% of the world's cotton production. The sown area in the United States is also expected to increase. The global 2012/13 cotton harvest area is expected to exceed only 34 million hectares, a decrease of 4% from the previous year. Market conditions were favorable last year, and farmers are encouraged to expand their planting area. The global yield is expected to increase slightly.
China, the world leader in cotton production, expects to produce 30.5 million bales of cotton in 2012/13, a decrease of 9% from the previous year. The reason is the relatively low price of cotton, as well as the increase in input costs, especially labor costs. Although the government introduced a minimum purchase price policy, the price of cotton received by farmers in 2011 was lower than in 2010, which may lead farmers to switch to alternative crops with lower planting costs and higher subsidies, such as food. If so, China's share of global cotton production in 2012/12 is expected to fall to 26%, which is lower than the average ratio in recent years. In 2012/13, China's cotton harvest area is expected to reach 5 million hectares, which is 500,000 hectares less than the previous year (9%).
India's cotton production in 2012/13 is expected to be 26.5 million bales, down 2% from the previous year, and its output will decline for the first time in five years. Harvested area in the world’s second-largest cotton producing country is expected to decrease by 4% from the previous year to 11.8 million hectares. India's 2012/13 yield is expected to be approximately 490 kg/ha, up 2% from the previous year.
Pakistan is expected to produce 1,000 bales of cotton in 2012/13, a decrease of 4% from the previous year, due to the fact that market conditions are not favorable and reduce the enthusiasm of farmers to expand their planting area. Pakistan's harvested area in 2012/13 is expected to reach 3.1 million hectares, a decrease of 3% from last year. Assuming normal weather, production is expected to decline.
Brazil's cotton production in 2012/13 is expected to decline by 6% from the previous year to 8.5 million bales, ending Brazil’s production for two consecutive years of high innovation. Farmers are expected to partially replant soybeans and corn because the price of cotton is relatively low. The Brazilian cotton harvest area in 2012/13 is expected to be slightly higher than 1.3 million hectares, a decrease of 5% from the previous year.
Australia expects to produce 4.7 million bales of cotton in 2012/13, which is 6% lower than the 2011/12 record. As irrigation water supply has improved significantly in recent years and it is likely to continue to develop in a good direction, the reason for the decrease in production is expected to be mainly market factors. Nevertheless, Australia’s share of global production is expected to remain at 4%. Australia's 2012/13 cotton harvest area is estimated at 550,000 hectares, a decrease of 8% from the previous year.
The sown area in China, India, Pakistan, Brazil, Central Asia and Australia is expected to decrease. The sum of these countries is expected to account for about 70% of the world's cotton production. The sown area in the United States is also expected to increase. The global 2012/13 cotton harvest area is expected to exceed only 34 million hectares, a decrease of 4% from the previous year. Market conditions were favorable last year, and farmers are encouraged to expand their planting area. The global yield is expected to increase slightly.
China, the world leader in cotton production, expects to produce 30.5 million bales of cotton in 2012/13, a decrease of 9% from the previous year. The reason is the relatively low price of cotton, as well as the increase in input costs, especially labor costs. Although the government introduced a minimum purchase price policy, the price of cotton received by farmers in 2011 was lower than in 2010, which may lead farmers to switch to alternative crops with lower planting costs and higher subsidies, such as food. If so, China's share of global cotton production in 2012/12 is expected to fall to 26%, which is lower than the average ratio in recent years. In 2012/13, China's cotton harvest area is expected to reach 5 million hectares, which is 500,000 hectares less than the previous year (9%).
India's cotton production in 2012/13 is expected to be 26.5 million bales, down 2% from the previous year, and its output will decline for the first time in five years. Harvested area in the world’s second-largest cotton producing country is expected to decrease by 4% from the previous year to 11.8 million hectares. India's 2012/13 yield is expected to be approximately 490 kg/ha, up 2% from the previous year.
Pakistan is expected to produce 1,000 bales of cotton in 2012/13, a decrease of 4% from the previous year, due to the fact that market conditions are not favorable and reduce the enthusiasm of farmers to expand their planting area. Pakistan's harvested area in 2012/13 is expected to reach 3.1 million hectares, a decrease of 3% from last year. Assuming normal weather, production is expected to decline.
Brazil's cotton production in 2012/13 is expected to decline by 6% from the previous year to 8.5 million bales, ending Brazil’s production for two consecutive years of high innovation. Farmers are expected to partially replant soybeans and corn because the price of cotton is relatively low. The Brazilian cotton harvest area in 2012/13 is expected to be slightly higher than 1.3 million hectares, a decrease of 5% from the previous year.
Australia expects to produce 4.7 million bales of cotton in 2012/13, which is 6% lower than the 2011/12 record. As irrigation water supply has improved significantly in recent years and it is likely to continue to develop in a good direction, the reason for the decrease in production is expected to be mainly market factors. Nevertheless, Australia’s share of global production is expected to remain at 4%. Australia's 2012/13 cotton harvest area is estimated at 550,000 hectares, a decrease of 8% from the previous year.
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