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(Zhang Yu 19!-Men, Shanxi Wanrongren 1) Linyi Power Supply Branch Senior Industrial I worked in the power supply system management workers%d.http:// generation method, pointed out the traditional load forecasting method The existing problems introduce the trend of the development of load forecasting methods.
Analysis; expert system 1 load forecasting and its significance power system load forecasting refers to the use of a systematic method to deal with past and future loads, taking into account some important system operating characteristics, capacity decisions and natural conditions. In a certain precision sense, it determines the load value at a certain time or at a certain moment in the future. Power system load forecasting can be divided into annual forecast, monthly forecast and daily forecast according to different periods. It can be classified into large-scale, long-term, medium-term, short-term and ultra-short-term load forecasting. Generally speaking, the long-term forecast can be as long as 10 to 30 years, and the medium-term forecast is usually 5-6 years. The short-term forecast refers to months, weeks, days, and hours. The ultra-short-term load forecast refers to the future 1h and the future 0. 5h or even the forecast of the next 10min.
Scientific prediction is the basis and guarantee for correct decision-making. Power system load forecasting is the basis for the development of power generation plans and power system development plans. Accurate load forecasting is particularly important for the economic, safe and reliable operation of power systems. The task of the power system is to provide all users with the reliability of the standard-compliant power as economically as possible, and to meet various load requirements, so the size and characteristics of the load are extremely important for the design and operation of the power system. Power system load forecasting is a pre-estimation of load changes and characteristics. Therefore, it is an important part of power system development and operation research. It is also one of the basic information that power grid dispatching departments and planning and design departments must have. Load forecasting is still energy. The management system (EMS) requires three types of data: past, present and future, and the main source of future data. Therefore, it is of great significance to seek effective load forecasting methods and improve the accuracy of their predictions.
2 Power System Load Characteristics One feature of power system load is its uncontrollability.
Although frequency control can be used to influence the load in some small variations (such as low cycle load shedding), in some cases, electricity consumption plan allocation can be used in local areas, or special electricity price policy can be used to influence the load. But in the power system, there are a variety of users, their requirements for power consumption are not related to each other, at some point there may be some factor to increase the load, and at another time there may be another The reason is that the load is reduced. Therefore, in essence, the power system load is uncontrollable, and the load changes are random. Another feature of power system load is its periodic variation by day, week, and year.
3 load forecasting method ~ Liu Chenhui. Theory and method of power system load forecasting. Harbin: Harbin Institute of Technology Press, 1987. Electric Power Press, 1998. North China Power Technology, 1999 (4).
The power system load forecast for the box. Wuhan University of Hydraulic and Electric Engineering (Yichang)
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